Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 36.718352 39.794624 43.166406 47.166744 51.824066 57.127023 63.698677
2025-05-25 31.718485 35.666739 40.281370 46.173488 53.652665 63.064446 76.223329
2025-06-01 28.653352 32.952424 38.182382 45.188264 54.627023 67.410342 87.086181
2025-06-08 26.253681 30.670712 36.199003 43.869124 54.681576 70.209314 96.147914
2025-06-15 25.347911 30.115688 36.270056 45.150413 58.342556 78.682956 116.469019
2025-06-22 24.079971 28.952845 35.383658 44.934477 59.699232 83.788052 132.785613
2025-06-29 22.795209 27.656818 34.182105 44.093188 59.909824 86.950759 146.521458
2025-07-06 21.515075 26.277266 32.749396 42.746472 59.092825 88.087947 156.333254
2025-07-13 21.218809 26.214329 33.152959 44.195154 63.065620 98.945967 195.501068
2025-07-20 20.790585 25.931416 33.203519 45.075911 66.170928 108.940506 240.830395
2025-07-27 20.378708 25.640471 33.210143 45.868534 69.221426 119.738257 301.140355
2025-08-03 19.788204 25.056421 32.729728 45.793041 70.593876 127.076875 358.968082
2025-08-10 19.071251 24.279078 31.944761 45.197865 71.000578 132.579764 421.607378
2025-08-17 18.329882 23.435236 31.013435 44.278901 70.643056 136.092503 483.730564
2025-08-24 17.647465 22.647718 30.125108 43.359498 70.155212 139.150985 554.526512
2025-08-31 16.946804 21.804494 29.105693 42.127156 68.835928 139.423514 607.552512
2025-09-07 16.806181 21.795047 29.412013 43.324161 73.062828 158.738811 988.554192
2025-09-14 16.392420 21.350901 28.987401 43.122537 74.061001 167.936779 1382.792749
2025-09-21 15.891782 20.754369 28.283535 42.336592 73.559381 171.556452 1764.089307
2025-09-28 15.329350 20.044525 27.363530 41.077086 71.758976 169.615665 1967.239003
2025-10-05 15.287016 20.136842 27.777474 42.431885 76.660186 197.679621 7857.339123
2025-10-12 15.146903 20.069138 27.916343 43.254602 80.387897 224.324107 NaN
2025-10-19 14.997421 19.979557 28.011042 43.994375 84.063934 254.966739 NaN